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Can I Retire at 63? The $2.4 Million Plan That Got a “Not Yet”

A retirement-readiness analysis of a fictional client with $2.4 million shows why a substantial portfolio may still produce a “Not Yet” answer. The scenario highlights early-retirement withdrawals, sequence-of-returns risk, and the value of quantifying tradeoffs for advisor-client conversations.

By Amit Nar

Head of Client Success4 min read

How RIAs can answer retirement readiness questions without rebuilding the financial plan. One client's $2.4 million portfolio revealed a surprising 23.5% modeled probability of success.

$2.4 Million Saved. Retirement Still Uncertain.

Sarah Mitchell is 61, has $2.4 million invested, and wants to retire at 63. She has spent decades preparing for this moment, but one question remains: “Can I actually afford to stop working?”

For an advisor, this question creates a familiar dilemma. Rebuilding an entire financial plan takes time, yet relying on an outdated retirement projection can create false confidence. The client needs an answer grounded in today's numbers, not last year's assumptions.

We asked DeepVest Chat to update Sarah's retirement readiness without starting over. The result challenged an assumption many clients make: having enough money to retire is not the same as having enough money to stay retired.

The Exact Prompt We Gave DeepVest

I am a Registered Investment Advisor preparing for a client meeting with fictional client Sarah Mitchell, age 61, who asks, “Can I retire at 63?” Her existing plan shows $2.4 million invested, $120,000 in annual retirement spending, $48,000 in Social Security starting at 67, and no pension; she worries about running out of money if the market crashes early in retirement.
Without rebuilding her financial plan from scratch, update her retirement readiness using inflation, taxes, healthcare costs, portfolio withdrawals, and sequence-of-returns risk; quantify her probability of success through age 95, annual income gaps, and the financial impact of retiring at 63 versus 65 under normal, optimistic, and adverse market scenarios.
Identify the three most important findings and highest-impact adjustments, showing their potential dollar impact, and give me a clear “Yes, No, or Not Yet” answer supported by numbers, followed by a compelling 90-second client conversation script. Clearly label assumptions, avoid specific investment recommendations, and limit your response to 500 words.

The Response DeepVest Produced

DeepVest retirement readiness analysis showing a “Not Yet” answer for retiring at 63, with a 23.5% probability of success through age 95 and lower odds if the market falls early in retirement. Tables compare success rates for retiring at 63 versus 65 and the annual income gap before Social Security begins.
Retirement planning comparison of starting portfolio values for retiring at 63 versus 65 under normal, optimistic and adverse market scenarios. Ranked findings show how cutting spending, working two more years, and funding the $710,456 gap before Social Security affect the client’s retirement probability of success.
A 90-second script an advisor can use to explain a “Not Yet” retirement answer to a client, covering spending, market risk early in retirement, and the $271,215 gained by working until 65. The listed assumptions cover inflation, healthcare costs, taxes and market returns.

Schedule a demo with DeepVest to see how AgentLab can help advisors reassess retirement readiness using updated assumptions and quantified scenarios.

The $710,456 Problem Hiding in Plain Sight

The most revealing finding wasn’t Sarah's $2.4 million balance. It was the $710,456 in modeled withdrawals required before Social Security begins. Those early years create a dangerous combination of spending demands and exposure to market declines.

DeepVest also showed that working two additional years could increase her starting assets by $271,215 under the modeled assumptions. That’s meaningful progress, but not a complete solution. The findings are conditional on assumptions that still need verification, particularly healthcare costs, taxes, and future savings.

This is where retirement readiness analysis becomes more valuable than a simple yes-or-no calculation. It identifies which decisions deserve attention and how different choices could change the outcome.

The Advisor's Advantage Is Clarity, Not Certainty

A client who asks whether retirement is possible is also asking whether the future feels secure. An unsupported “yes” may feel reassuring today but create much greater anxiety later.

Using an AI investment platform for RIAs, advisors can examine retirement scenarios, quantify tradeoffs, and prepare clearer client conversations without manually rebuilding every calculation. DeepVest provides analysis and interpretation; the advisor challenges the assumptions and determines how those findings fit the client's circumstances.

For Sarah, “Not Yet” is not a closed door. It’s a starting point for a better plan. The value of the meeting is turning uncertainty into measurable choices while the client still has time to make them.

For RIAs: When a client asks, “Can I retire?”, which matters more in your first assessment: spending flexibility, sequence-of-returns risk, or retirement timing?

Schedule a demo with DeepVest to explore how AgentLab supports retirement readiness analysis and client meeting preparation.

For questions, contact: [email protected]

  • Advisor Intelligence

Written by Amit Nar

Head of Client Success · 21 articles

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Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, or professional advice. Views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect DeepVest’s official position. DeepVest is a technology platform providing analytical tools—not a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or financial institution. Our tools are designed to support the independent judgment of financial professionals, not replace it. Nothing herein constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or adopt any investment strategy. Portfolio analyses and examples are illustrative only and do not represent actual outcomes or guarantee future results. Consult qualified financial, legal, and tax professionals before making investment decisions. DeepVest disclaims all liability for decisions made in reliance on this content.

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    Can I Retire at 63? The $2.4 Million Plan That Got a “Not Yet” | DeepVest